Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile

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dc.contributor.authorGil, Esteban
dc.contributor.authorMorales, Yerel
dc.contributor.authorOchoa, Tomás
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-30T02:46:23Z
dc.date.available2022-11-30T02:46:23Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractDespite the growing scientific evidence, the electricity market models used in Chile do not consider the effects of climate change on hydroelectric energy production. Based on a statistical analysis of the historical hydro-energy inflow dataset and a revision of the scientific literature, we suggest a set of technical and statistical criteria to determine an alternative representation of the hydro-energy uncertainty in the Chilean electricity market. Based on these criteria, we then propose an alternative range of historical hydrological data, which is built by shedding the first 35 years of the historical dataset (out of 59 years) and using only a reduced subset of 24 years. Additionally, we propose to capture the potential impacts of even more prolonged droughts on the Chilean electricity system by repeating the last nine years of data at the end of the 24 year-long series. The resulting extended subset of 33 hydro-years is approximately 10% drier on average than the original dataset of 59 years. The proposed range of hydrological data captures some of the anticipated effects of climate change on Chilean hydro-uncertainty reported in the literature and also preserves most of the intra-annual and spatial diversity of the original data.en_ES
dc.facultadFacultad de Ingenieríaen_ES
dc.file.nameGil_Add2021.pdf
dc.identifier.citationGil, E.; Morales, Y.; Ochoa, T. Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile. Energies 2021, 14, 241. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14010241en_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/en14010241
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositoriobibliotecas.uv.cl/handle/uvscl/7347
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rightsCopyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.sourceEnergies
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGEen_ES
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGYen_ES
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL UNCERTAINTYen_ES
dc.subjectHYDROELECTRIC ENERGYen_ES
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGYen_ES
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITYen_ES
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY MODELINGen_ES
dc.titleAddressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile
dc.typeArticulo
uv.departamentoEscuela de Ingenieria Civil Biomedica

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