Examinando por Autor "Herrera Navarro, Pablo"

Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
  • Miniatura
    Ítem
    Modelling the distribution of the anemone metridium senile (linnaeus, 1761) in the chilean patagonia: projection of invasion under climate change scenarios
    (Universidad de Valparaíso, 2024) Herrera Navarro, Pablo; Directora de tesis: Oliva Ekelund, Doris
    Invasive species are among the primary threats to marine biodiversity. Metridium senile, a sea anemone introduced to the Southern Hemisphere, has been recorded in Patagonia, Southeast Pacific, where its spread has negatively impacted native benthic species, fisheries, and aquaculture. This study aimed to project the habitat suitability of Metridium senile in Patagonia under current climatic conditions and to analyse potential changes in its distribution under various climate change scenarios. Species distribution models were developed using MaxEnt, based on occurrence data from its native range and environmental sea surface predictors provided by BioOracle. The contribution and correlation of each variable were assessed using Pearson analysis. Potential shifts in distribution and the magnitude of change over the long term were determined under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). The projected potential distribution of Metridium senile spans the coasts of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans from -37°S southward, consistent with its observed distribution in both regions. The environmental predictors with the highest contribution, lowest correlation, and greatest ecological relevance were temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Climate change scenarios SSP2 and SSP5 suggest a progressive decline in habitat suitability in northern Patagonia, followed by a gradual increase in central and southern Patagonia (between -46°S and -51°S) during the 2040–2090 period. This indicates a poleward shift in the species distribution. These findings highlight the potential impact of climate change on the spread of Metridium senile in Patagonia, emphasizing the need for monitoring and management strategies to mitigate its ecological and economic consequences.