A forecast model for prevention of foodborne outbreaks of non-typhoidal salmonellosis

Fecha

2020

Profesor Guía

Formato del documento

Articulo

ORCID Autor

Título de la revista

ISSN de la revista

Título del volumen

Editor

PeerJ Publishing

ISBN

ISSN

item.page.issne

item.page.doiurl

Departamento o Escuela

Escuela de Nutricion y Dietetica

Determinador

Recolector

Especie

Nota general

Resumen

Background. This work presents a forecast model for non-typhoidal salmonellosis outbreaks. Method. This forecast model is based on fitted values of multivariate regression time series that consider diagnosis and estimation of different parameters, through a very flexible statistical treatment called generalized auto-regressive and moving average models (GSARIMA). Results. The forecast model was validated by analyzing the cases of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis in Sydney Australia (2014–2016), the environmental conditions and the consumption of high-risk food as predictive variables. Conclusions. The prediction of cases of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis infections are included in a forecast model based on fitted values of time series modeled by GSARIMA, for an early alert of future outbreaks caused by this pathogen, and associated to high-risk food. In this context, the decision makers in the epidemiology field can led to preventive actions using the proposed model.

Descripción

Lugar de Publicación

Auspiciador

Palabras clave

FORECAST, GSARIMA MODEL, SALMONELLA OUTBREAKS, SURVEILLANCE

Licencia

Distributed under Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0

URL Licencia